NWS Forecast Discussion
485
FXUS61 KCTP 080735
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
335 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slightly lower PoPs Thursday for areas north of I-80. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum
in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
2) Rain chances increase for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning.
Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Areas of fog and low clouds have developed and will gradually
dissipate after sunrise. A few slow moving showers are ongoing
along a boundary that cuts across southwestern portions of the
forecast area. Radar estimates show that a few localized areas
in Bedford and Fulton Counties have seen rain totals as high as
2 inches since midnight, but rainfall rates have been low
enough to prevent any worries about flash flooding. These
showers should continue through the rest of the night, before
dissipating through the morning.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal today and weak high
pressure at the surface sets up over the eastern half of
Pennsylvania. As a result, expect skies to become partly cloudy
for the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Model
soundings show a relatively strong capping inversion over most
of central PA this afternoon, which should limit the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. That being said, we may still see
isolated to scattered showers and storms develop on the higher
terrain of the Alleghenies. Any storms that do develop will be
capable of producing heavy downpours, but the flash flood
threat appears to be low.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase for the end of the week.
An upper level trough will set up over the northeastern US for
the end of the week. A few weak disturbances moving through the
trough will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop on Thursday, particularly over the southern half of the
area. There is still some uncertainty regarding storm coverage,
but any storms that do develop will be very efficient rain
producers Most guidance shows precipitable water values
climbing to near 2 inches along and south of the turnpike, tall,
skinny CAPE profiles, and a sufficiently deep warm cloud layer
in excess of 11,000 feet. This, combined with slow storm
motions, may support a flash flood threat over southern PA.
Though shear is expected to be weak, there is some potential for
storms to slowly organize as they move eastward through the
afternoon. SPC has added a marginal risk for severe weather that
covers the Lower Susquehanna Valley with damaging wind gusts
being the primary hazard.
A stronger shortwave will move through on Friday leading to
additional thunderstorm development ahead of a cold front.
Instability looks to be limited, but storms will still have a
very moist environment to work with so heavy rainfall will be
possible.
Uncertainty begins to increase as we head into the weekend. Rain
chances for Saturday will depend on how quickly the cold front
from Friday drops south of the area. We could see scattered
showers and storms if the front lingers over southern PA, but we
would be mainly dry if it is quicker to slide off to the south.
Sunday is looking like a mainly dry day as most guidance has
the boundary well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region.
Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to
IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence
is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past
several mornings.
The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR
conditions overnight, with alternations between the two
possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these
sites as well.
Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z
Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing
visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds
will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less
than 8kts.
Outlook...
Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during
the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely.
Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco
AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
